Secret Iran Plant Gives U.S. Leverage in Geneva Talks
2009-09-30

Category United Nations Nations Russia Sweden Venezuela Category Regions Regions Europe Pacific Rim Central America South America People Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Dmitry Medvedev Nicolas Sarkozy Robert Gates Ronald Reagan Jimmy Carter Event Iran Nuclear Crisis Iran-U.S.

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Iran enters the first talks in more than a year on its nuclear ambitions facing world powers more unified in their demand for limits after the disclosure of a covert uranium enrichment plant.

The U.S. says it wants the meeting tomorrow in Geneva to be the start of a dialogue aimed at ensuring Iran doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon. Policy makers are exploring internally what sanctions might be appropriate at the end of the year should talks fail to ensure the nuclear effort is for peaceful ends, as Iran insists.

“The Obama administration is going into these talks with much more leverage than it’s had in a while,” said Gary Sick, who advised three U.S. presidents on national security. “The threat of enhanced sanctions, combined with some pragmatic offer to allow Iran to continue with limited enrichment, could lead to a deal.”

Iran’s program was discussed last week among the U.S. and its allies at the United Nations and the Group of 20 summit in Pittsburgh as the Obama administration tried to forge a united front. Three rounds of Security Council resolutions, unilateral U.S. sanctions and European financial restrictions have failed to halt Iranian uranium enrichment.

The U.S. has cautioned that Iran may be reaching a point where it could build a nuclear weapon. The country’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said “the negotiators can adopt any policy they want, but we won’t be harmed,” Agence France-Presse cited him as saying.

No ‘Snap Judgment’

“We’re not going to make a snap judgment on Thursday,” State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said yesterday of the Geneva gathering, at which Iran’s nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, will meet with diplomats from the five permanent United Nations Security Council members -- the U.S., Russia, China, France and Britain -- plus Germany. Jalili said on state television today Iran would enter the talks with “good intentions.”

Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief and a liaison to Iran, said more than one meeting will likely be necessary to reach agreement. “The goal is engagement, to seek assurances that Iran’s nuclear program has peaceful intentions,” Solana said in an interview in Goteborg, Sweden.

Last week, the U.S., France and Britain turned up the heat by jointly announcing that they had discovered the hidden enrichment site. That came a few days after Iran sent a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency declaring its existence. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the plant is 18 months from completion and was disclosed within proper time limits.

Technical Issue

Whether Iran is within its IAEA obligations is a technical issue, said Sick, who worked for Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.

“They’ve been caught with their nuclear pants down,” Sick said. “They will come to Geneva red-faced, but not apologetic.”

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said yesterday Iran must allow international inspectors “unfettered access” to its facilities.

Iran says its uranium enrichment is to produce fuel for nuclear power plants. The U.S. and EU countries, as well as Israel, say Iran is developing the capability to make a nuclear weapon should its leaders decide to take that step.

The main problem for the allies is that Ahmadinejad said last week Iran won’t discuss its atomic activities. “What business is it of theirs to tell us what we can do?” he told reporters in New York on Sept. 25.

It is unclear if the step that Iran has pledged to take -- allowing inspectors to visit the new facility -- would satisfy the U.S. And one Iranian official, lawmaker Mohammad Karami- Rad, said yesterday his country may withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if the Geneva talks fail.

China, Russia

China and Russia agreed to a statement issued Sept. 23 in New York urging Iran to demonstrate that its program isn’t intended for development of a weapon.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who has expressed doubts about the value of sanctions, sent mixed messages on whether Russia would support new penalties. Last week he said sanctions would be appropriate “when all instruments have been used and failed.” After the disclosure of the nuclear-fuel facility, he called on Iran to cooperate in a probe, without mentioning the possibility of new punishments.

China, which signed an agreement with Iran for the development of the South Azadegan oilfield Sept. 28, has been cool to new sanctions.

Equipment Ban

The Security Council has banned the sale of any equipment that could be used in Iran’s nuclear program. It has also imposed travel bans on certain individuals and trade restrictions on Iranian banks and companies involved in the program. The U.S. has its own set of sanctions which amount to a near trade embargo.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said last week that Iran must change course or face tougher sanctions by December. These may include restrictions on banking and oil and gas technology, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sept. 27.

It remains unclear whether such measures, or pressure to choke off Iranian imports of refined fuel as favored by some U.S. lawmakers, would have any effect.

Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, relies on imports for at least a third of its domestic fuel consumption because of a lack of refinery capacity. It is turning to Venezuela and Asian suppliers to make up for any potential shortfall.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gregory Viscusi in Goteborg, Sweden, at gviscusi@bloomberg.net ; Janine Zacharia in Washington at jzacharia@bloomberg.net